Keeping the social fabric of India intact
When I wrote the previous post about the Bollywood royal couple, I was only being snarky. But the more I thought about it, the better the idea seemed to me. In-fact, it seemed like a brilliant way to both earn money and keep the social institution of marriage alive and kicking.
I am talking of a Futures market in marriages. Or, betting on how long a couple will be that.
Here’s how it would work – let’s say a couple – Abhishek Bachchan and Aishwarya Rai – are so in love with each other, are extremely devoted to each other that they will bet a whole load of things in favour of them being a couple for a long time. Now, my statistics tell me that the current time frame for a couple in the same demographic to be together is 6 years. So, I will take up their bet – Mr. Bachchan’s – at an odds of 10 to 1. That is, if the two stay together for more than 6 years, I will pay them 10 times the money they bet me. If they don’t, I get to pocket the entire amount.
This gives the two of them more than just an emotional and sexual incentive to stay together. Money speaks, AB baby. The money they bet me, I will put in a few equity schemes, on the market or a PPF - judiciously – so I earn something from this risky venture of mine. If the two strike it out together, I also need to pay them back 10 times, which only comes from the market.
Now of course, there’re a lot more couples than just AB and AR, and I am sure, they’d bet enough money for me to make a serious go at keeping it for myself.
The way I look at it – I make money, while keeping the social fabric of India intact*
So, all this was just an idea. I asked my Impractical Libertarian cartel friend of mine and big IIMB grad Mr. K.R Aadishtan, if it’d work. Here’s the chat transcript.
me: Saar….
Aadisht: Yo
me: if you are not too bijy, one sumall kostin
Aadisht: Putits
me: Would there be a market for a marriage betting service? A wedding futures
....
Because, I think this would really work – especially for the yuppies
Say – 20 years, 20 lakhs – at 10 to 1 odds.
Aadisht: Are your contracts going to be on specific pairings or futures?*or simply timelines?
me: a couple would bet with me
on a certain timeline
I will of course average it out with stats on divorce rates for the demographic and all
Take ABAR fr’nstance
If AB bet me 20 lakhs on a 20 year marriage, at a 10 to 1 odds, they have both a monetary and emotional incentive to stay together
And I could invest that 20 in a way that would still earn me a profit, and pay for the bonus just in case they strike it out for 20 years
Of course, ABAR would be a big bet. I am sure there’d be other couples, not so high profile, who’d still bet a decent sum
Aadisht: Hmm. Strong.
me: Does this work out, in basic terms or is there a serious hole in my logic?
Aadisht: It works very well, because young happily married couples will be overoptimstic and cynicism free
And will bet in the face of the odds
me: I could even propose this as an essential part of every young couple’s pre-nupts
Or, take the idea to a Shaadi.com# or a Bharat Matrimony
Aadisht: Actually.
Fabulous.
This is a new business model.
me: There you go
My revenue model is in place, my market is at-least a billion strong
Aadisht: The couple demands that shaadi.com puts its money on the line and bets that the marriage will last.
me: Woaho! That would work even better.
Shaadi will have an incentive then to better their model, and their service
YAY!
Aadisht: All matchmakers
me: yup. play catchup
Aadisht: including traditional maamis
me: Yes.
So, there you have it. A whole new business plan. Call the VCs. Call the couples. Let a thousand pairings begin today!
Flippant post aside, I think this would work very well.
*Yes, that’s a little Aym Gramd, but I am a bit of an optimist that way
- Shaadi.com idea inputted by Chillpilgrim.
futures | 
betting | 
business idea | 
wedding futures | 
prediction market
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April 30th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
okka makka…...ithu en enakku thonala?
April 30th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Brilliant!
April 30th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
What exactly do you mean by not making it? Does it mean a couple actually files for divorce? Or gets the divorce? Or gets separated by court? Or seperates otherwise? You see the system works against you because it takes forever to get an actual separation.
Secondly, there is a strange kind of asymetry of information. The couple could be living apart and doing what they wanted, just waiting it out to get 10 times the money and file for divorce immediately after payment. And you cannot question their arrangement of how they choose to live together or apart. It would also be difficult to monitor is they are actually just biding time due to kids, parents, pre-nups etc or are actually together in the sense we notmally mean it in.
The couples’ own advantage is too large because they get to decide when and how to get divorced.
However, I think its a brilliant idea to bet on when we all bet on someone else’s chances of making it as a couple. As in they don’t bet on their own marriage, but on Abhi-Ash etc etc.
April 30th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
yaru intha suruthi? amma, poi velaya parunga….vanthuttanga velakkam solla…
May 1st, 2007 at 3:13 am
sooper idea!
May 1st, 2007 at 4:58 am
Othha, mayiru maadiri oru idea. modalla poi vaaya kazhuvu.
May 1st, 2007 at 7:28 am
the bet provides the couple an added incentive to stay together. Assuming couples split in 3 yrs without money, with money it could be extended to 6 yrs. The odds of winning will go down, and this wont be reflected in the demographic calculation you use unless u bet with sufficient number of people to change the numbers. adu kastam. so im saying ull lose money.
Better system, bet on two people getting married to each other by a certain date, then also staying together. then ull end up pushing ppl into marriage, so it might cancel out the monetary incentive in your system. How bout proposing this to shaadi? shaadi offers those who get engaged within the first 2 weeks of contacting someone are eligible to bet on their marriages??
May 1st, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Since Aadist mentions maamis, I’ll have to tell you what the maamis of my family recommend for every new marriage.
They call it the rendu-maattu vandi and immediately tell you to take a home-loan together.
May 1st, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Yappa ! It has had mey head spinning !
May 1st, 2007 at 4:50 pm
[...] Posted by பிரேமலதா on May 1st, 2007 me: Saar…. Aadisht: Yo me: if you are not too bijy, one sumall kostin Aadisht: Putits me: Would there be a market for a marriage betting service? A wedding futures [...]
May 1st, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Idea seems sound.
Definitions of whether a person is married or divorced can be worked out – implementation details.
Implementation of the scheme itself could lead to a change in the divorce rates etc. Obviously the odds and premium can vary depending on the duration of the contract and the change in the divorce rates also.
The biggest plus is that the market is huge!
Probably the idea has to be packaged suitably.
Seriously take it to a VC, after doing some HW on the stats, odds etc.
May 1st, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Folks – I will answer all your questions in just a day. Hang on, and keep debating this. Please
May 2nd, 2007 at 9:00 am
nee romba buddhisaali daan. aana nilu alavukku illa.
May 2nd, 2007 at 10:58 am
Linking it on http://www.bestofindya.com
May 2nd, 2007 at 11:21 am
[...] 1) Why Goundamani and Senthil are geniuses – or the long, boring post on humour 2) More on the Wedding Futures market, answering questions – or the SelAm attempt at going intellectual 3) Theatre of Dionysus – or a post on Greek and Tamil satire. [...]
May 8th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
The holy institution cannot get a worse insult than this. If it is so that you dont believe in marriages, just stay away from it. Your idea of making other people’s life a gamble, stinks. Marriage is simply not about getting together for the heck of it. It involves deep rooted relationship,trust etc. Looking at such insane ideas, it makes me feel that our ethics are headed for a crash.