Selective Amnesia There was a point to this. But I forgot.

Keeping the social fabric of India intact

When I wrote the previous post about the Bollywood royal couple, I was only being snarky. But the more I thought about it, the better the idea seemed to me. In-fact, it seemed like a brilliant way to both earn money and keep the social institution of marriage alive and kicking.

I am talking of a Futures market in marriages. Or, betting on how long a couple will be that.

Here’s how it would work – let’s say a couple – Abhishek Bachchan and Aishwarya Rai – are so in love with each other, are extremely devoted to each other that they will bet a whole load of things in favour of them being a couple for a long time. Now, my statistics tell me that the current time frame for a couple in the same demographic to be together is 6 years. So, I will take up their bet – Mr. Bachchan’s – at an odds of 10 to 1. That is, if the two stay together for more than 6 years, I will pay them 10 times the money they bet me. If they don’t, I get to pocket the entire amount.

This gives the two of them more than just an emotional and sexual incentive to stay together. Money speaks, AB baby. The money they bet me, I will put in a few equity schemes, on the market or a PPF - judiciously – so I earn something from this risky venture of mine. If the two strike it out together, I also need to pay them back 10 times, which only comes from the market.

Now of course, there’re a lot more couples than just AB and AR, and I am sure, they’d bet enough money for me to make a serious go at keeping it for myself.

The way I look at it – I make money, while keeping the social fabric of India intact*

So, all this was just an idea. I asked my Impractical Libertarian cartel friend of mine and big IIMB grad Mr. K.R Aadishtan, if it’d work. Here’s the chat transcript.

me: Saar….
Aadisht: Yo
me: if you are not too bijy, one sumall kostin
Aadisht: Putits
me: Would there be a market for a marriage betting service? A wedding futures
....
Because, I think this would really work – especially for the yuppies
Say – 20 years, 20 lakhs – at 10 to 1 odds.
Aadisht: Are your contracts going to be on specific pairings or futures?

*or simply timelines?
me: a couple would bet with me
on a certain timeline
I will of course average it out with stats on divorce rates for the demographic and all
Take ABAR fr’nstance
If AB bet me 20 lakhs on a 20 year marriage, at a 10 to 1 odds, they have both a monetary and emotional incentive to stay together
And I could invest that 20 in a way that would still earn me a profit, and pay for the bonus just in case they strike it out for 20 years
Of course, ABAR would be a big bet. I am sure there’d be other couples, not so high profile, who’d still bet a decent sum
Aadisht: Hmm. Strong.
me: Does this work out, in basic terms or is there a serious hole in my logic?
Aadisht: It works very well, because young happily married couples will be overoptimstic and cynicism free
And will bet in the face of the odds
me: I could even propose this as an essential part of every young couple’s pre-nupts
Or, take the idea to a Shaadi.com# or a Bharat Matrimony
Aadisht: Actually.
Fabulous.
This is a new business model.
me: There you go
My revenue model is in place, my market is at-least a billion strong
Aadisht: The couple demands that shaadi.com puts its money on the line and bets that the marriage will last.
me: Woaho! That would work even better.
Shaadi will have an incentive then to better their model, and their service
YAY!
Aadisht: All matchmakers
me: yup. play catchup
Aadisht: including traditional maamis
me: Yes.

So, there you have it. A whole new business plan. Call the VCs. Call the couples. Let a thousand pairings begin today!

Flippant post aside, I think this would work very well.

*Yes, that’s a little Aym Gramd, but I am a bit of an optimist that way

1. Shaadi.com idea inputted by Chillpilgrim.

futures | betting | business idea | wedding futures | prediction market

The Bollywood royal couple

How much time do you give them to split? Now accepting bets.

Odds:
2 years: 4 to 1
1 year: 2 to 1
6 months: 1 to 1

bollywood | Aishwarya Rai | Abhishek Bachchan | betting | odds

Poor, little, little-understood font

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P.S. Goundamani and Senthil will have to wait a day more. Comedy, as the cliche goes, is no easy joke.

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